P1827 - Increasing Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Men: A Population-Based Time-Trend Analysis Using the Global Burden of Diseases Database

Saqr Alsakarneh, MD¹, Hasan Sqour, MD², Laith Numan, MD, MS³, Fouad Jaber, MD¹, Yassine Kilani, MD⁴, Mohamed Ahmed, MD⁵, John Campbell, MD¹, Wendell Clarkston, MD⁶, Ala Abdel-Jalil, MD⁷, Ahmad Najdat Bazarbashi, MD^8
1University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO; ²Ascension Saint Joseph Hospital, Chicago, IL; ³Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; ⁴Lincoln Medical Center, New York, NY; ⁵University of Missouri Kansas City, Overland Park, KS; ⁶University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Saint Luke’s Hospital of Kansas City, Kansas City, MO; ⁷Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH; ⁸Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Introduction: Esophageal cancer is a rare type of cancer that accounts for 1% of all cancers in the United States (US) but is associated with a 21.7% five-year survival rate. There is limited data on recent age and sex-specific incidence rates. The aim of this study was to conduct a time-trend analysis of age and gender-specific esophageal cancer incidence rates in the US using the Global Burden Diseases (GBD) 2019 database.

Methods: Data was obtained from the GBD 2019 database, an international database that covers ~100% of esophageal cancer diagnoses in the US from 1990 to 2019. All types of esophageal cancer incidence rates, age-adjusted to the standard US population, were calculated using SEER*Stat software (v.8.4.0.1, National Cancer Institute “NCI”) and were stratified by gender, as reported in the database. Time-trends were estimated as annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) using Joinpoint Regression Software (v.4.9.0.1, NCI) utilizing Monte Carlo permutation analysis. Pairwise comparison was conducted between gender-specific trends using the tests of parallelism and coincidence. Age-specific trends were also assessed in two age sub-groups: younger adults aged 15-49 years and older adults aged 50-74 years. A two-sided P-value cut-off of 0.05 was utilized for statistical significance.

Results: A total of 515,862 patients were diagnosed with esophageal cancer in the US between 1990-2019. Overall, esophageal cancer incidence rates have been decreasing in adults for the past 30 years. Incidence rates decreased in older adults (AAPC= -.30, P< 0.001) but remained stable in younger adults (AAPC= -0.11, P=0.58) with an absolute AAPC difference of 0.18 (P=0.42). Moreover, incidence rates have been significantly increasing in men (398,024 patients) at a higher rate than in women (117,838 patients) (AAPC= 1.65 vs. 0.34; AAPC difference=1.28, P< 0.001). Gender-specific trends were not identical (P< 0.001) nor parallel (P< 0.001), suggesting that esophageal cancer incidence rates are different and increasing at a greater rate in men compared to women.

Discussion: Overall, esophageal cancer incidence has decreased in adults in the US over the last three decades. However, esophageal cancer incidence rates have been increasing in men more than women. Future studies are warranted to investigate risk factors associated with this increasing incidence rates in men.



Disclosures:


Saqr Alsakarneh, MD¹, Hasan Sqour, MD², Laith Numan, MD, MS³, Fouad Jaber, MD¹, Yassine Kilani, MD⁴, Mohamed Ahmed, MD⁵, John Campbell, MD¹, Wendell Clarkston, MD⁶, Ala Abdel-Jalil, MD⁷, Ahmad Najdat Bazarbashi, MD⁸. P1827 - Increasing Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Men: A Population-Based Time-Trend Analysis Using the Global Burden of Diseases Database, ACG 2023 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Vancouver, BC, Canada: American College of Gastroenterology.